It's Super Tuesday, I'm dying to know what's going on, but alas... no exit polls.
In the past, we've usually seen some start to leak before the polls closed. Often as early as 1pm. But ever since the 2004 debacle, when exit polls showed Kerry winning, it's become pretty much impossible to get early ones, even crappy ones.
Apparently, there's a much tighter rein on them these days.
But if you're into reading tea leaves, then you might want to check out Intrade, a market where you can bet on the outcome of elections. For the first time in the entire election cycle, Intrade traders are now giving Barack Obama a higher chance of winning than Hillary Clinton. Just slightly higher -- 52.9% vs 47.9% as of 5:26 pm -- but higher nonetheless.
This switcheroo just happened about 2 hours ago. Maybe evidence of betting by some who really did get early evidence of exit polls? Perhaps. Or perhaps just a coincidence.
Now, arguably, you can only put so much credence on these things, since they're still just predictive markets. And God knows, they've been wrong in the past. Still though, it's real people putting up real money. And... that seems a lot more predictive to me than just the usual pontification.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
No Exit Polls... but Promising Sign for Obama?
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My brother works with Mitofsky, the crew doing the polling, and he said they have seriously tightened things up since the Kerry debacle.
One thing people don't appreciate enough about exit polling - you take your samples based on an estimate of how big turnout is going to be. But - once actual turnout numbers come in, you have to adjust the sample to accurately reflect who has actually turned out and voted. That's why there can be such disparities between early numbers and final numbers.
In an election like this, where turnout is doubling previous records, it's really hard to get a handle on those upfront estimates.
Sorry, used the wrong word there.
What you have to do is re-weight the sample, depending on the actual turnout
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