I'm obsessed with Intrade

Intrade is a predictive market that allows you to make bets on the outcomes of elections, including (my obsession) the Democratic presidential nomination.

Basically, you pay for the "right" to receive $100 if your predicted outcome happens. Right now, Hillary is trading at $60.9, meaning the market assumes Hillary has a 60.9% chance of winning the nomination. Obama is at $39.9, meaning he's at 39.9%.

Why is this interesting? Because people are trading real money. And because, arguably, they are doing so on the basis of a consolidated read of all the information that is out there vis-a-vis the race -- the latest polls, fundraising figures, endorsements, etc.

Is it perfect? Naw. But it does reflect changes in candidate fortunes almost immediately. Polls, on the other hand, take at least a day or two (i.e., there's almost always at least a day between when the polling is done, and when the data is processed and released).

So here I am, with the Intrade site up, hitting "refresh" over and over again, obsessively.

I suppose I'll be less obsessed after Feb 5th. Maybe.